Welcome to the Redbird Roost!

Hello there, fellow Cardinals fanatics. Welcome to the Redbird Roost, a place where I, Ryan Boyer, will come to discuss anything and everything to do with the St. Louis Cardinals. This blog is part of the ever-growing Fanball Sports Network, and as the MLB Managing Editor for Fanball.com, you can also find my work at OwnersEdge.com and RotoTimes.com.

But enough with introductions.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold had an interesting write-up over at his Bird Land blog today regarding the Cardinals’ start to the season and whether they were “for real” or not. The Cards have the best record in baseball and the best record in the NL Central on May 1 for the fourth time in the last five years.

So which is it? Are they “for real,” or is this a mirage and this team is not much different than the one that has finished outside of the playoffs the last two years?

This is a team that definitely has its warts. The starting rotation has gone a combined 13-2, which includes a 4-0 mark from Joel Pineiro, who opened the season as the No. 5 starter and who hasn’t had a winning season since 2003. The staff’s collective WHIP is 1.39, which, as Goold notes, ranks 10th in the National League (the league average last year also happened to be 1.39). Starters with a league average WHIP that don’t rely on the strikeout (other than Mitchell Boggs, who has made just two starts, Adam Wainwright is the only starter with a respectable K/9 rate of 7.7) don’t typically win 13 out of 15 decisions.

Another thing that won’t continue is the production from Brian Barden and Joe Thurston. The two journeymen are hitting a combined .323 with three homers and 18 RBI thus far (most of that production has come from Barden, who doesn’t play as much since he’s the right-handed part of the platoon). Both guys are nice complementary pieces, but they will be overexposed eventually.

The team also has made 21 errors, the second-highest total in baseball. That’s yet to really come back and bite them, but if they keep booting balls at this rate, you can bet it will at some point.

Of course, I think all of these problems could be corrected.

If Chris Carpenter can come back healthy in a month or so, obviously that will provide a big boost to the rotation and soften the blow that will inevitably come when some of the starters come back to earth (yes, I realize that’s a big “if”).

Troy Glaus’ rehab hasn’t gone as expected, but when/if he comes back, he can give the team a lift. If it turns out that Glaus’ 2009 season becomes a lost one, the Cards at some point could turn to top prospect Brett Wallace, who is off to a nice start at Double-A. I’m sticking to my preseason prediction that Wallace will hit more homers for the Cards this year than Glaus.

The Cardinals had the second-best fielding percentage in the NL last year, and while the D at second has worsened, the outfield D will likely be improved with Colby Rasmus playing four or so games per week. Both Barden and Thurston have looked great at third, so there shouldn’t be much, if any, of a defensive drop-off there. Maybe they won’t be a top-three NL defense again, but at worse I think they’re league average.

I don’t think anyone believes this team will sustain a .696 winning percentage, but this is a playoff-caliber team. As it stands right now, I would still probably peg the Cubbies as the favorites in the division, but I don’t think 90 wins is out of the realm of possibilities for the Redbirds.

Until next time…

Tags: Adam Wainwright, Brett Wallace, Brian Barden, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, Joe Thurston, Joel Pineiro, Mitchell Boggs, Troy Glaus