Rotation options

Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse will make up 3/5 of the Cardinals rotation next year. If he has a solid spring training, I think Jaime Garcia will lock up another spot. I also think there’s a very good chance that John Smoltz returns as a member of the rotation.

If those last two scenarios come to fruition, obviously the team’s rotation will be set. But what if one or both don’t come true? If the team fails to re-sign Matt Holliday, there’s certainly a chance they could use that saved money on a starter. The problem is that this year’s crop of free agent starters is very weak.

I’m not including John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman or Joel Pineiro since I think the chances of signing any of them are little to none. But let’s take a look at some other starters on the free agent market that could possibly pique the Cardinals’ interest. Many of them fit into the injury-prone, high-ceiling category.

Ben Sheets – Sheets has arguably the highest upside of any of the available free agent pitchers. Of course, we all know the biggest drawback for him is health. He had surgery on the flexor tendon in his elbow in February of 2009 and sat out all of the ‘09 season. He has been on the DL five times in his career, with a total of 98 days spent on the DL with two seperate shoulder ailments. Sheets has never had this long of a layoff to “heal up” before, and it’s possible it could do wonders for him. It’s also possible it could do nothing. But one thing is for sure: When he is healthy and pitching well, Sheets can be a legitimate ace. If the Cardinals could sign him to a one- or two-year deal with maybe an option for a third year, they should be all over it.

Erik Bedard – I think it’s fitting to place Bedard directly after Sheets, since they are similar players in that they’re loaded with talent but constantly on the shelf with injuries. This left-hander is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder and could possibly miss the first month or two of the season. Bedard will likely be looking for a one-year, incentive-laden deal and hope to pitch well before earning a big deal next offseason. As far as injury-prone, high-end starters, I would much rather take a shot on Sheets. Bedard is a Type B free agent, which does give him added appeal.

Rich Harden – You need to see Harden pitch to just one batter to see all the talent he holds in his right arm. Only on one occasion, though, has he made 30 starts, and that was in 2004. He has managed to make 51 starts over the last two seasons, and he pitched well each season (much more so in 2008), which means his agent could talk someone into giving him a three-year deal. If that’s the case, I’ll pass, though it helps that he’s a Type B free agent.

Kelvim Escobar – I promise not every guy on this list will be injury-prone. Escobar is a Tommy John survivor and has had numerous shoulder problems in his career, making just one start over the last two years due to shoulder woes. He’ll turn 34 in April, so there could be a few seasons left on that arm if he can manage to stay healthy, which is very much in question. I would be willing to take a one-year gamble if the price is right.

Justin Duchscherer – Okay, maybe one more injury-prone guy. Duchscherer made a very successful shift from reliever to starter in 2008 but dealt with hip injuries at the end of the year and missed all of 2009 due to elbow woes. He attempted a comeback at the end of the season but was ultimately shut down due to depression issues, something the Cardinals are familiar with due to Khalil Greene. For that reason and because he’s just so frail, I don’t see the Cards taking a gamble here.

Doug Davis – There were some rumors floating around that the Cardinals had some interest in trading for Davis at the deadline, but he stayed put in Arizona. Davis is a decent back-end of the rotation guy that will eat up innings. I guess it would be nice to have a left-handed starter (though it’s far from a necessity), but Davis hasn’t had a WHIP below 1.50 since 2005 and walks way too many for a guy whose strikeout rate has been in decline. Pass.

Brett Myers – It’s possible Myers could sign somewhere as a reliever, but he’ll surely want to start. Myers has dealt with injuries and off-the-field issues in his time in Philly and has been inconsistent performance-wise, as well. He often develops gopherities, which likely speaks to his command issues more than anything since he gets a decent number of groundballs. There’s not enough upside here for me to consider anything more than a modest one-year deal.

Brad Penny – Penny pitched well for the Giants following a terrible run in Boston, though he had just a 4.3 K/9 rate with San Fran and a 5.7 rate on the season. He would be pretty far down the list of options on my board.

Randy Wolf – Wolf has been very durable the last two years after years of extreme fragility. He put together arguably his most impressive season in 2009, but the odds of him repeating it are very slim. I think he will be overpaid wherever he goes, and the fact that he’s a Type A free agent makes him more unappealing.

Jon Garland – The best thing Garland has going for him is that he is extremely durable, having made at least 32 starts for eight straight seasons. The problem is that he has also been extremely blah in those starts. Only once has Garland held an ERA under 4.00 during that stretch, and he hasn’t had even a 5.0 K/9 rate since 2003. Garland has the reputation of a groundball pitcher, but that’s not really the case, as he held a 1.31 GB/FB rate in 2009 and has a 1.29 rate in his career. The Cardinals would be better off giving both of the open rotation spots to young guys than signing Garland.